Most Australian and US betting websites provide different NBA betting markets for every game. One of the most interesting and sometimes lucrative is the basketball players’ performance betting markets. Apart from the game’s superstars, most of the player’s statistics fluctuate a significant amount every night. So, if you can determine when it is or isn’t going to be a player’s night, you can take advantage of the player’s performance in the NBA prop markets. Here are a few tips for making your own decision regarding prop betting on player performance markets.
In general, a few selected players are given an under/over on a different statistic, whether it be rebounds, points, assists, or a combination of two or more of them. Usually, the line is set around their season average for that specific star; for example, Luka Doncic’s season average for points 28.8, so bookmakers may set his points line at 28.5. Moreover, some key factors can swing a player into having a bad or good performance on any night. The bookmakers are experienced enough at adjusting their lines if something significant happens. Still, sometimes, they go unseen, and, on a few occasions, you get a small window to jump on before they get updated.
The primary factor is injury. When a leading player in the team suffers from an injury, the bookmakers think that their replacement in the starting line-up must get most of their production. Although the replacement will indeed increase the stats, at least two other players in the starting line-up will get an additional boost in production that sees them reach the over and vice-versa if an injured player returns to the line-up. An excellent case is when point guard Chris Paul left with an injury and Austin Rivers, his replacement in the starting line-up, receive a remarkable increase but also the likes of J.J. Reddick and Jamal Crawford improve their points and assist numbers in Chris’s absence. These guys often go unnoticed by the bookmakers.
Another essential factor in prop betting is matchups. Few teams defend some positions extremely well while giving production to other positions in spades. Usually, it is a safe bet in steering clear of the overs when your player is playing against teams like the Grizzlies or Spurs. They can able to defend every position well and rarely allow a single player to dominate the game. A team to look out for is the Boston Celtics. They can defend the guard positions very well with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, but on the other hand, they are the worst rebounding team. We saw Andre Drummond, the leading rebounder whose rebounding line is usually set around 14.5, claims 22 against the Celtics, which can be an easy win for the overs. The best thing to do when involving in such betting is to study the team stats and defense vs positions. There are various sites where you can get all the information.